Notes Jun 11, 2026

Typesetting Test: What 'Doubling Every 4 Months' Actually Means

A site capability test — math rendering, plus the arithmetic behind doubling times

This short note doubles as a typesetting test for this site (KaTeX math is rendered to static HTML at build time — zero client-side JS), using the arithmetic behind the headline numbers in Is AI Still Accelerating?.

A quantity that doubles every TT months grows in tt months by a factor of 2t/T2^{t/T}. So “capability doubles every ~4 months” compounds to

212/4=23=8× per year.2^{12/4} = 2^3 = 8\times \text{ per year.}

Doubling time and annual growth factor kk convert via

T=12ln2lnk,T = \frac{12 \ln 2}{\ln k},

so a 200× annual price decline corresponds to a “halving time” of 12ln2/ln2001.5712\ln 2/\ln 200 \approx 1.57 months — prices halve roughly every 7 weeks.

A literal dollar sign also needs to survive the math pipeline: $10 per million tokens should render as plain text, not as a formula.